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Paderborn vs Borussia Dortmund

Fri 05 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Paderborn win: 38.0%

Draw: 16.5%

Borussia Dortmund win: 45.5%

Predicted: Borussia Dortmund

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.45

More corners: Borussia Dortmund (33.9% home / 66.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Borussia Dortmund

Yes

Probability Borussia Dortmund wins or draws: 60.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (46.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Borussia Dortmund (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Borussia Dortmund win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.